Power transmission and distribution industry needs

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Before the financial crisis, the power transmission and distribution industry was in urgent need of innovative support

bank failures, stock market crash, layoffs of companies, joint interest rate cuts by central banks of various countries, and multi-national governments spent huge sums of money to rescue the market... A financial crisis originating from the United States swept the world, and many countries felt the chill it brought to varying degrees

under the declining world economic trend, China's macro-economy is also difficult to avoid being dragged down. How will China's power transmission and distribution industry be affected in this macro environment? What is the future development trend? A few days ago, I interviewed xujialiang, President of Shanghai Electric Appliance Industry Association. As the production center of power transmission and distribution equipment, the current situation of power transmission and distribution industry in Shanghai has certain representative significance

the future market is uncertain

in the work summary of Shanghai Electric Appliance Industry Association for 2007, it is seen that "according to incomplete statistics, the annual sales of member units of Shanghai Electric Appliance Industry Association in 2007 was about 30billion yuan, an increase of 18% year-on-year", which can be said to have maintained a stable growth. Moreover, the electrical products of many member units have made breakthroughs in the field of high voltage. For example, the 550 kV GCB EHV equipment developed by Shanghai Zhongfa yipa EHV Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. is applied to the power transmission of the special supply line from Inner Mongolia to Beijing Olympic venues; The new off-site tap changer developed and produced by Shanghai Huaming Power Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. for 500 kV and above transformers has successfully passed the national product appraisal

on the whole, it should be said that the power transmission and distribution industry in Shanghai maintained a good state of development in 2007. But for the future, xujialiang still has some worries

"Our situation is very serious, which is quite different from that of a year ago. First of all, since 2008, due to the impact of the world economy and taking into account the overheating of China's economy, the state has begun to carry out macro-control on the economy, resulting in unstable economic development, tight economy and a decline in the market demand for some transmission and distribution products.

secondly, the future market situation of transmission and distribution products is relatively serious. We also recognized that The future market for power transmission and distribution products is very large, because the demand for power transmission and distribution equipment is closely related to the installed capacity of power generation. It is predicted that China's installed capacity of power generation will reach 1.2 billion kw in 2020, which will bring strong demand for power transmission and distribution equipment. Taking the transformer as an example, the installed capacity of 1 kW power generation requires a 14 KVA transformer. But since 2008, this feeling has been different. Seeing that the future power generation plan is so large, all parts of China have begun to build new power plants in recent years. In recent years, the newly installed capacity has exceeded 100million kW. From such a development speed, it is possible that the national installed capacity will reach 900million kW in 2009 and 1billion kW in 2010. Then there is only 200million kW room for growth between 2011 and 2020, and the growth rate of installed power generation will certainly decline, The growth of demand for matching transmission and distribution products will also slow down. " Xujialiang said

while the future market demand is uncertain, the supply of power transmission and distribution products is increasing significantly. Due to the previous optimistic market expectations for power transmission and distribution products, many manufacturers of power transmission and distribution products have also accelerated the pace of construction. New enterprises have entered, old enterprises have expanded, and new plants have been built everywhere. Taking foreign-funded enterprises as an example, abb, Areva, Siemens and other foreign giants have increased their investment in China in recent years, building or expanding their domestic transformers Switches and other different products that fully mobilize the human body's self-healing ability. The increase in the supply of power transmission and distribution products brings more choices to users, but also increases the market competition, and the risk becomes greater for manufacturers. Under the dual effects of uncertain long-term prospects on the demand side and increased supply, once the market declines, production enterprises will face severe competition brought about by overcapacity

prepare for a rainy day

although the above prediction has not yet appeared, the old saying goes, "it is better to prepare for a rainy day than dig a well in the face of thirst". It is a wise choice to be fully prepared to meet the challenge. Talking about the general situation of the industry, as the chairman of Shanghai Electric Appliance Industry Association, xujialiang also made a specific analysis of the situation of the power transmission and distribution industry in Shanghai

"from a macro perspective, affected by economic regulation, the demand will certainly decline. From the perspective of Shanghai, the cost increase restricts the development, which are the two major contradictions faced by the power transmission and distribution industry in Shanghai." Xujialiang said, "Compared with other provinces and cities, the production cost of Shanghai's power transmission and distribution manufacturing industry is relatively high. The input cost of fixed assets, such as land cost, is several times higher than that of some other provinces and cities. Due to the high survival cost, the labor cost of Shanghai is also higher than that of most other regions in China. Among the more than 260 member enterprises of the association, most of them produce low-end products. Such products have low profits, such as the gross profit of low-voltage switch panel is only 7%, and should It is difficult to collect the accounts receivable. Under the condition that the product manufacturing cost is higher than that in other regions, these enterprises will not be able to maintain their competitiveness if they are still competing at the low end. There is no way out to support the key enterprises of new materials to benchmark against the international benchmark. "

in response to this situation, in early 2008, Shanghai Electrical Appliance Industry Association proposed that the only way out of the dilemma is to develop into high-end products and products in short supply. Xujialiang told that in combination with the situation in Shanghai, the association proposed eight categories of products to member units as suggestions for the development direction

the first category is high-voltage, ultra-high voltage and ultra-high voltage electrical products, including transformers, switches, wires and cables, power automation and important components, which are also the development focus of Shanghai in terms of transmission and distribution industry, which makes its comprehensive performance good. The production capacity of such domestic products, especially UHV products, is limited, which can not keep up with the development of line construction. The profit situation is good and has a good prospect

the second category is flexible AC transmission system and its supporting products. Flexible AC transmission has many advantages, such as energy saving, safety, high efficiency and so on. Although such products have not been widely used in China at present due to technical and price reasons, this is certainly a development direction

the third category of products is the transmission and distribution products used in clean energy power generation. China advocates vigorously developing renewable energy, and wind power and solar power generation have developed rapidly. Among them, matrix new materials has signed a contract of several million yuan with Shenzhen anenson Technology Co., Ltd., a large domestic molten salt R & D, manufacturer and distributor, which will be applied to inverter, controller, wire and cable, protective device and other electrical products. Due to different power generation methods, special requirements are put forward for these equipment, There are still many new technical problems that have not been solved, which is a good opportunity for enterprises

the fourth category of products is energy-saving products. Such as amorphous alloy transformer, frequency converter, etc

the fifth category is special electrical products, such as explosion-proof electrical products, including mining and chemical products; And products used in nuclear power, shipbuilding, aviation and other fields

the sixth category is high-end medium and low voltage products, such as products with energy-saving, intelligent, maintenance free and green environmental protection features

the seventh category is automatic control system and protection device

the eighth category is non-standard electrical appliances, namely customized products

"in the next few years, the power transmission and distribution industry in Shanghai may suffer a lot. The fierce competition, price war, lack of funds and other issues may lead to the decline of enterprise benefits. However, we must pay attention to these development directions. Even if we can't produce products, we must get started, do technical reserves, be a supporting role if we can't be a leading role in the industry, and produce supporting parts if we can't produce the main products." When it comes to suggestions for enterprises, xujialiang is sincere in his words

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